TskTsks/home-advantage-african-football

Dataset and analysis code for: "Quantifying Home Advantage in African Football Competitions Using Statistical Data Analysis — CAF Champions League and AFCON (2010–2025)" # Home Advantage in African Football (2010–2025) **Quantifying Home Advantage in African Football Competitions Using Statistical Data Analysis: Evidence from the CAF Champions League and AFCON (2010–2025)** > Ezeobi Henry Chinedu > Department of Computer Engineering, University of Uyo, Nigeria > ezeobihenry213@gmail.com --- ## Overview This repository contains the dataset and analysis code accompanying the above paper submitted to an IEEE conference. The study quantifies home advantage (HA) in 812 non-neutral fixtures from the CAF Champions League (CAF CL, 766 matches) and AFCON (46 matches) spanning 2010–2025, using standard statistical methods including Poisson rate ratio estimation, binary logistic regression, OLS trend analysis, and chi-square tests. **Key findings:** - HA% = 68.1% (CAF CL) and 68.6% (AFCON), substantially above the ~60% European benchmark - North Africa records the highest regional HA (72.8%); West Africa the lowest (61.3%) - Home teams score 85.5% more goals per match than away teams in the CAF CL (γ̂ = 0.618) - Temporal trend is non-significant (β = −0.213%/yr, p = 0.398), indicating HA stability over the study period --- ## Repository Contents ``` home-advantage-african-football/ ├── Home_Advantage_Enriched.csv # Full dataset (812 non-neutral fixtures) ├── analysis.py # Python script reproducing all tables and Fig. 2 ├── README.md # This file ``` --- ## Dataset Description **File:** `Home_Advantage_Enriched.csv` **Rows:** 812 (non-neutral fixtures only) **Sources:** FBRef (AFCON dataset); cross-referenced with FotMob, SofaScore, and Wikipedia (CAF CL dataset) | Column | Description | |---|---| | `Date` | Match date (YYYY-MM-DD) | | `Season` | Season label (e.g., 2018, 2018/19) | | `Competition` | CAF Champions League or African Cup of Nations | | `Stage` | Competition stage (Group Stage, Quarter-final, etc.) | | `Home Team` | Home team name | | `Away Team` | Away team name | | `Home Goals` …