Socioeconomic drivers of wildfire probability and urban smoke exposure in East & Southern Africa (2018-2024)
# The Human-Fire System
## Socioeconomic Drivers of Wildfire Probability and Urban Population Smoke Exposure in East and Southern Africa
### A Satellite-Based Predictive Modelling Study ; 2018–2024
5 Countries Zambia, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe
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15 Cities Monitored 1°×1° Grid; 2018–2024
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Platform: Google Earth Engine + Python
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## Interactive Map- Begin Here
> **The fastest way to understand this entire project is through the self-contained interactive map. Download it and open in any browser- fully offline, no server required.**
**File:** `outputs/maps/human_fire_system_interactive_map.html`
Single self-contained HTML file; zero CDN dependencies; works fully offline after download
| Map Layer | Description |
|-----------|-------------|
| **Fire anomaly heatmap** | RF-predicted above-baseline fire deviations across 1°×1° grid, 2018–2024 |
| **City exposure bubbles** | 15 cities; bubble size ∝ cumulative Population Exposure Index (PEI) |
| **City labels** | Top 5 most smoke-exposed cities permanently labelled with rank and PEI value |
| **Country boundaries** | 5 countries, colour-coded dashed outlines (USDOS LSIB 2017) |
| **5-tab analytics panel** | Drivers ; Exposure ; Model CV ; Countries ; Key Findings- all inline, no scroll |
Basemap options: CartoDB Light ; CartoDB Dark ; Esri Satellite + minimap, fullscreen, coordinate readout
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## Relationship to Project 1- This is a Direct Analytical Extension
> **This project is the explanatory and predictive continuation of Project 1: Wildfire Dynamics, Atmospheric Emissions and Forest Cover Loss in Zambia, Tanzania, Malawi and Mozambique (2015–2024).**
Project 1 was a **descriptive remote sensing study** that documented *what* burned, *when*, and *where* across a 10-year satellite record. Using MODIS MCD64A1, Sentinel-5P TROPOMI, and Hansen Global Forest Change v1.11, it established:
- ~592,000 km²/year mean burned a …