Vain-Guy/Impact-Of-Foreign-Cutoff-on-Kenya
Domain:
socioeconomicCreator:
Vai
Host:
Data-driven analysis of the 2025 U.S. foreign aid cutoff on Kenya’s economy. Uses regression and machine learning models to quantify aid dependency, identify vulnerable sectors, and forecast future funding trends.
# Impact of Foreign Aid Cutoff on Kenya’s Socio-Economic Sectors
## Overview
Between **2010–2025**, the United States—primarily through **USAID** — has been a cornerstone of Kenya’s socio-economic development. However, the **2025 U.S. foreign aid freeze** caused major disruptions across health, education, and agriculture sectors, exposing the country’s vulnerability to donor dependency.
This repository presents a **comprehensive data-driven assessment** quantifying the impact of U.S. aid fluctuations on Kenya’s development and forecasting potential future outcomes using advanced regression and machine learning models.
## Project Objectives
1. **Quantify Aid Dependency**
Measure Kenya’s reliance on U.S. foreign aid at sector and agency levels.
2. **Assess Impact of Aid Cutoffs**
Analyze how funding reductions affect national performance indicators.
3. **Identify Vulnerable Sectors**
Determine which sectors are most exposed to future aid disruptions.
4. **Forecast Future Scenarios**
Build predictive models to anticipate sectoral and fiscal outcomes.
## Data Source
| Attribute | Description |
|------------|-------------|
| **Source** | ForeignAssistance.gov |
| **Coverage** | 2000–2025 |
| **Records** | ~80,000 (filtered from 3M+ global entries) |
| **Features** | 56 attributes including sectors, agencies, aid types, fiscal years, and disbursements |
**Focus Country:** Kenya 🇰🇪
**Currency:** Constant U.S. Dollars (Inflation-Adjusted)
## Data Preparation
Key preprocessing steps included:
- **Filtering** records for Kenya (2000–2025)
- **Dropping redundant fields** (IDs, codes, text duplicates)
- **Imputing missing dates** using fiscal year midpoints
- **Standardizing column names** to snake_case
- **Feature engineering**:
- Rolling 3-year means & volatility indices
- Annual growth rates & dependency ratios
- Aid Diversity Index (Shannon Entropy)
**Final dataset:** ~79,000 clean records × 14 analytical columns
## Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)
| Insight …