vickyetuk/seirdv_model_ebola

This repo contains the code and analysis output for a base deterministic model for a simulated West African Ebola Outbreak in 2014 # seirdv_model_ebola This repo contains the code and analysis output for a base deterministic model for a simulated West African Ebola Outbreak in 2014 Infectious Disease Modelling of Ebola Virus Disease Introduction: Ebola virus disease is a highly pathogenic, severe and often lethal, viral haemorrhagic disease, caused by the Ebola virus of the Orthoebolavirus genus family. Ebola virus is a RNA virus and is endemic to West and Central Africa1,2. The disease was first reported in 1976, during outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan 3,4, and over the past forty years, about 34 outbreaks have been reported, resulting in over 34,000 cases and an estimated 14,000 deaths 5. The largest outbreak was the 2014-2016 outbreak, which occurred across 10 countries, primarily in West Africa6,7. The disease is primarily transmitted from animal reservoirs to humans 2, with secondary transmission from humans to humans occurring through contact with contact with body fluids such as blood, stool, semen, breast milk and saliva8,9. Symptomatic individuals are infectious, with asymptomatic individuals believed to be non infectious1,10. A meta-analysis reported the transmission rate of Ebola virus as 12.5%11. Symptomatic individuals remain infectious during the period the virus remains in the blood1. There is no cure, supportive management is provided to prevent multi-organ failure1,2. The use of monoclonal antibodies is recommended in management of patients12. In 2024, the World Health Organisation approved the use of two vaccines Ervebo (Merck & Co) and Zabdeno and Mvabea (Janssen Pharmaceutica), with the former used as part of outbreak response 13. In the light of availability of vaccines, it is important to understand the impact of vaccination on future Ebola outbreaks. Thus this project aims to understand the effect of vaccination on a simulated Ebola outbreak. Research question: What is the effectiveness of potential vaccination on transmissibility of Ebola Virus …