WambuiGichuru/nyeri_milk_forecasting_project

# Nyeri County Milk Production Forecasting ### Faith Wambui Gichuru — SCT213-C002-0003/2022 — JKUAT A comparative time-series forecasting study applying ARIMA, SARIMA, and Facebook Prophet to both observed Nyeri County dairy data and a Denton-Cholette simulated monthly dataset, deployed as an interactive Streamlit dashboard. --- ## Project Structure ``` nyeri-milk-forecasting/ │ ├── data/ │ ├── 01_county_annual.csv ← Dataset 1: 9 observed annual records │ ├── 02_subcounty_population.csv ← Dataset 2: 5yr x 8 sub-county records │ └── 03_simulated_monthly.csv ← Dataset 3: Generated by simulate.py │ ├── 01_data_preparation.py ← CRISP-DM Phase 1 & 2: understand + prepare ├── 02_simulate.py ← CRISP-DM Phase 3: generate Dataset 3 ├── 03_eda.py ← CRISP-DM Phase 4a: exploratory analysis ├── 04_models.py ← CRISP-DM Phase 4b: train all 3 models ├── 05_evaluate.py ← CRISP-DM Phase 5: compare + rank models ├── app.py ← CRISP-DM Phase 6: Streamlit dashboard │ ├── requirements.txt └── README.md ``` --- ## Git Setup — Step by Step ### 1. Install Git Download from git-scm.com and install. Verify: open terminal and type `git --version` ### 2. Configure Git (one time only) ```bash git config --global user.name git config --global user.email ``` ### 3. Create GitHub Repository 1. Go to github.com and sign in 2. Click the **+** icon → **New repository** 3. Name: `nyeri-milk-forecasting` 4. Set to **Public** 5. Check **Add a README file** 6. Click **Create repository** ### 4. Clone to your computer ```bash # Replace YOUR_USERNAME with your actual GitHub username git clone github.com cd nyeri-milk-forecasting ``` ### 5. Set up Python virtual environment ```bash # Create the environment python -m venv venv # Activate it — Windows: venv\Scripts\activate # Activate …