WElvis87/Malaria-Case-Prediction-in-Kenya-Counties

A Machine Learning System that aims at predicted the future malaria cases based on climatic conditions recorded in the different counties in Kenya. # 🦟 Malaria Case Prediction in Kenya Counties ## 🎯 Problem Definition: Why This Project Exists Malaria transmission in Kenya is highly seasonal, geographically uneven, and climate-driven. Counties experience spikes at different times of the year depending on rainfall, temperature, and historical transmission patterns. ## 📌 Project Overview **Malaria Case Prediction in Kenya Counties** is a data-driven machine learning project that predicts monthly malaria case counts for each county in Kenya using historical case data and climatic features such as temperature and rainfall. This project demonstrates: - Data acquisition, cleaning, and preprocessing - Feature engineering for time series and climate data - Model training and evaluation 👉 The goal of the project is to aid in prior planning by the stakeholders (MoH: Malaria Response Team). Through case prediction, the stakeholders are aware of areas that could have potential spikes in cases in a give time of the year and hence help in resource allocation to aid prevention. --- ## 📊 Motivation Malaria remains a major public health challenge in Kenya. Accurate short-term predictions can help: - Health authorities allocate resources more effectively - Counties prepare for expected case surges - Non-governmental partners plan targeted interventions This project focuses on predictive modeling using real case counts and weather data to provide actionable forecasting insights. --- ## 🧠 What This Project Does (At a High Level) This project builds a county-level, monthly malaria case prediction system using machine learning. Specifically, it: 1. Learns patterns from past malaria case counts 2. Incorporates climatic drivers (rainfall and temperature) 3. Produces forward-looking predictions for each county It is a decision-support system. ### 🗂️ Project Structure ``` C:. │ .gitignore │ requirements.txt │ ├───config │ config.yaml │ ├───data │ malaria_raw.csv │ nyandarua.csv │ process_mala …