yadakiya/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# 🇪🇹 Ethiopia Digital Financial Inclusion Forecasting System (2025–2027) > **10 Academy – Artificial Intelligence Mastery | Week 11 Challenge** > **Consulting Firm:** Selam Analytics > **Stakeholders:** National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE), Development Finance Institutions (DFIs), Telebirr, and Safaricom M-Pesa Ethiopia --- # 📌 Project Overview Ethiopia is experiencing rapid growth in digital financial services through platforms such as **Telebirr** and **M-Pesa Ethiopia**. Despite this expansion, financial inclusion has grown more slowly than expected. According to the **World Bank Global Findex 2024**, account ownership increased from **46% in 2021** to only **49% in 2024**, revealing what this project calls the **Digital Financial Inclusion Deceleration Paradox**. This project develops an end-to-end forecasting system that combines historical financial inclusion indicators with major ecosystem events to forecast Ethiopia's financial inclusion performance for **2025–2027** under multiple scenarios. The solution includes: - Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) - Data enrichment pipeline - Event impact modeling - Scenario-based forecasting - Interactive Streamlit dashboard - Strategic recommendations for policymakers --- # 🎯 Project Objectives The project aims to: - Understand the major drivers of financial inclusion in Ethiopia. - Analyze how national digital finance events affect financial inclusion indicators. - Forecast **Account Ownership (Access)** and **Digital Payment Usage** through 2027. - Compare Base, Optimistic, and Pessimistic scenarios. - Evaluate Ethiopia's progress toward the **National Financial Inclusion Strategy II (NFIS-II)** target of **60% account ownership**. --- # 📊 Key Research Insights ## 1. Digital Registration ≠ Financial Inclusion Although mobile money registrations exceeded **65 million**, many users already owned bank accounts and simply connected mobile wallets. The increase in truly new financial inclusion remained relatively m …