yamnao/modelling_cataract_mortality

Modelling the cataract mortality in Kenya # Cataract Backlog Simulation Model ### Overview This repository contains the code and data used to simulate cataract backlog dynamics in Kenya (1980–2040). The model estimates how the prevalence of visually impairing cataract evolves over time under different assumptions about incidence, surgical rates, and mortality. It also quantifies outcomes such as: - the number of people living with untreated cataract, - cumulative cataract surgeries performed, and - deaths among untreated individuals. Code is done using Python. You will need to install the package pandas, numpy, matplotlib to run it. ### Files In the code folder you can find three models: - the first one: 'model_cataract_mortality' simulates population mortality from 1980 to 2040 and generates Figure 2 in the manuscript. - the second one: 'model_backlog_2025_closed_cohort' tracks outcomes for individuals in the 2025 backlog cohort only and produces Table 1. - the last one: 'model_backlog_2025_open_cohort' extends the analysis to an open cohort by adding new incident cataract cases each year from 2025 onward, generating Table 2 in the manuscript.