Global dynamics of blue and green hydrogen production : comparative analysis and a multi-criteria decision-making framework for feasibility assessment

Global efforts to address climate change have converged on a target of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century. In this context, hydrogen has emerged as a key solution to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors such as iron and steel or shipping. Unsurprising, several countries around the world have announced plans, policies, and investments to support a low-carbon hydrogen economy. Whether these initiatives and policy support can sustain a local hydrogen ecosystem in the long-term is unclear. Deploying and growing a hydrogen supply chain at scale depends on a number of factors beyond limited policy support or initial investment. Under limited budgets and competing priorities, how can countries and lending institutions choose which hydrogen production projects to invest in? This study introduces a multi-criteria decision-making framework that broadly evaluates the role of various technical, socio-economic, and environmental factors across different countries in sustainably producing blue or green hydrogen. We use this framework to comparatively assess the potential for blue and green hydrogen production in several candidate countries with diverse economic, environmental, and social circumstances: the United States of America (USA), Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Saudi Arabia, China, India, South Korea, Kazakhstan, the European Union (EU) and Nigeria. The findings reveal notable variability in the feasibility of blue or green hydrogen production across these countries. We show that relying solely on technical feasibility such as the availability of gas reserves or solar power potential is insufficient to reliably assess the feasibility of a domestic hydrogen economy, as evidenced by the scenarios in Brazil and China for green and blue hydrogen, respectively. The novelty of this work lies in its integration of qualitative and quantitative metrics to comprehensively compare the potential for blue and green hydrogen production globally. Policymakers and industry practitioners within countries or regions can use this study to formulate hydrogen strategies that are tailored to their unique circumstances and resources. Global lending institutions could also incorporate this framework as a screening criterion to optimally allocate funds to the most feasible projects within specific countries or regions.