Groundwater, Climate Change and Conflict: Empirical Evidence from Africa

Groundwater plays a crucial role in supporting livelihoods and economic activities in Africa, particularly in regions affected by climate-induced water scarcity. This study explores the economic implications of groundwater resources during periods of climate shocks and their relationship to conflict dynamics in affected regions. It employs a comprehensive dataset covering the period from 1997 to 2021, encompassing information on conflict events and groundwater availability. The relationship between groundwater depth, climate shocks, and conflict occurrences is analyzed through both cross-sectional and temporal analyses across 10,310 cells (each 0.5×0.5°, or ≈ 55×55 km). We define two measures of local climate shocks: a temporary shock based on yearly variation, and a persistent shock using a moving average of temperature over multiple years. The findings suggest that areas with a higher proportion of shallow water -i.e., more accessible groundwater-have become increasingly prone to violence over time, particularly in the presence of persistent local climate shocks. Moreover, these persistent shocks have a greater impact on low-intensity and localized conflict events in regions with more accessible groundwater. Further, within-cell inequalities in water access emerge as significant conflict drivers. Lastly, secondary analyses examining the respective contributions of pastoralist activities and state capacity to the observed effects provide insights into the mechanisms. Overall, the findings underscore the need for equitable water management strategies to mitigate conflict and promote sustainable development in Africa.