HIV/AIDS and economic growth: Evidence from West Africa

Summary Human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in West Africa. Prevalence among the most productive age group in West and Central Africa stood at 1.5%, 3.4.0%, 2.5%, and 2.1% in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 respectively. This study examined the effect of HIV/AIDS on economic growth in West Africa with focus on 11 countries. The augmented Solow model, rooted in the neoclassical growth theory, was used, which was operationalized using dynamic panel data modeling approach. Incidence, prevalence, number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), and AIDS‐related deaths were used to measure HIV/AIDS. Estimations using system GMM returned statistically significant results while those of first difference and difference GMM were not. From the outcome of system GMM analysis, a percentage increase in incidence, prevalence, PLWHA, and AIDS deaths correspondingly reduced growth significantly through their effects on life expectancy by 0.15%, 0.02%, 0.004%, and 0.03%. Acquired immune deficiency syndrome deaths and PLWHA lowered economic growth through enrolment but not significantly. The import of the findings is that HIV/AIDS threatens growth through life expectancy in West Africa. Therefore, its spread in the subregion should be effectively contained while proper treatment should be provided for all infected persons.