Impact of FDI and Trade on African Economies: Developing Neural Network Feedforward Structure for a COVID-19 Scenario

Abstract African Economies are a mix of emerging and developing economies, characterised by regional imbalances and socio-economic differences. Foreign Direct Investment and Trade has been important for the growth prospects of African Economies. In this paper, we attempt to study the impact of FDI and Trade in a COVID-19 scenario on the African Economies. We also study the lockdown restrictions in different regions of Africa. Applying Neural Network Analysis for the sample of 36 African Economies we identify the significant economic variables for GDP. The analysis based on a feedforward structure suggests that Merchandize Exports (MEXP) and Foreign Direct Investment Stock (FDIS) have very strong causal linkages with the GDP for African Economies sample. On the other hand, Merchandise Imports (MIMP), Services Exports (SEMP), Services Imports (SIMP), and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (FDII) have a strong and significant relationship with GDP for the African Economies. Tariff Measures (TRFF), Anti-Dumping measures (ADP) and Foreign Direct Investment Outflows (FDIO) have no significant relationship.