Industry 4.0 Technologies as a Moderator of the Relationship Between Critical Success Factors and Small and Medium Enterprises Survival

International audience Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) constitute 96% of Nigerian businesses yet face an 80% failure rate within five years. This study investigates how Technology 4.0 adoption moderates the relationship between critical success factors (CSFs) and SME survival-a critical research gap addressed through quantitative analysis of 400 SMEs across Nigeria's six geopolitical zones. Drawing on integrated theoretical frameworks (Resource-Based View, Institutional Theory, and Technology-Organization-Environment), hierarchical moderated regression reveals that Technology 4.0 significantly amplifies CSF effectiveness (β = .18, p < .001; ΔR² = .08). Financial resources, entrepreneurial orientation, and marketing capabilities rank as the most critical factors among 25 identified CSFs. Crucially, a Johnson-Neyman threshold (Technology 4.0 > 2.1) establishes the minimum digital maturity required for significant amplification effects. Sectoral analysis exposes substantial variation: manufacturing exhibits the strongest moderation (β = .25, p < .001), while agriculture shows non-significant effects, highlighting contextual digital disparities. The findings advance an amplification model wherein digital adoption enhances rather than substitutes traditional success determinants, with enterprise capabilities demonstrating the strongest moderation (β = .20). This study provides empirical evidence for policymakers, SME owners, and financial institutions to design targeted interventions bridging digital adoption gaps, ultimately strengthening SME resilience in emerging economies.