Integrated landslide risk models to account for the human impact on landslide activity

Landslide risk will gradually increase in low- and lower-middle-income countries toward 2050. The accelerating expansion of human interventions of steep hillsides and water cycle-related process regimes altered by climate change modulate this increase in landslide risk. For example, climate change impacts are expected to be the most severe in the tropics, where the landslide risk mitigation capacity is likely the most limited. As a result, about 88% of landslide fatalities in the Americas and Africa were in the Tropics. To understand the roots of the increasing risks, dynamic interactions between the natural environment, rainfall patterns, and urbanisation must be considered.

In our study, we demonstrate how process-based modelling aids in exploring the dynamic natural-human landslide risk interactions. We show that combining global projections of urbanisation and climate with process-based models enables analysing of the landslide hazard drivers. For example, informal urbanisation could increase landslide counts fivefold. Thus, such approaches could provide valuable information for international policies and community-targeted actions for adequate landslide risk reduction.

The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)