Integrating climate data and smallholder perceptions for climate services co-design in Eritrea

Abstract Understanding whether farmers’ perceptions align with empirical climate trends is essential for the co-production of climate knowledge and the design of effective climate services. This study presents the first integrated assessment of farmer perceptions alongside long-term climate trends in Eritrea. It combines ERA5 reanalysis data (1950–2024) with survey data from 261 smallholder dairy farmers across three major dairy-producing zones. Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope analyses reveal significant warming (0.024–0.029 °C per year) and a decline in mean annual rainfall. Rainfall seasonality has shifted, with later onset, earlier cessation, and shortening of the wet season since the 1950s. Wet-season Precipitation Concentration Index values indicate a highly irregular distribution of rainfall. Farmers’ perceptions closely mirror these trends, with widespread reports of shifting seasons, increasingly erratic rainfall, rising temperatures, uneven or insufficient rainfall, and crop losses associated with shortened rainy periods. The strong alignment between farmers’ perceptions and observed climate trends underscores the value of integrating experiential knowledge into climate and extension advisory systems to enhance their relevance and uptake. The observed trends also highlight the urgent need for investment in climate–resilient agriculture. Overall, the findings show that farmers’ experiential knowledge provides credible evidence that can strengthen the design and effectiveness of climate and extension advisory services in data-scarce and climate–vulnerable smallholder systems.