Integrating Land Use and Multimodal Accessibility for Equitable Transit-Oriented Development: Evidence from Abuja, Nigeria

Accessibility provides a direct way to evaluate whether transport and land-use policies improve access to opportunities rather than only increasing network capacity. This study develops and applies a GIS-based multimodal accessibility framework to Abuja, Nigeria, to examine the interaction between transport supply, employment distribution and transit-oriented development (TOD). The analysis uses a 2024 spatial grid and evaluates public-transport and private-car job accessibility at 30- and 45-minute thresholds. Four conditional 2035 scenarios progressively add high-capacity transit expansion, feeder-network integration, station-area intensification and an inclusive TOD package. Population-weighted 45-minute public-transport accessibility is 78,146 jobs in the 2024 baseline and rises to 165,162 under Scenario A, 193,536 under Scenario B, 222,454 under Scenario C and 263,129 under Scenario D. Scenario D therefore represents a 236.7% increase relative to the baseline. The directly recalculated population-weighted accessibility Gini is 0.619 in the baseline, 0.634 in Scenario A, 0.635 in Scenario B, 0.632 in Scenario C and 0.628 in Scenario D. The results indicate that increasing aggregate accessibility and improving its distribution are distinct policy objectives: rail investment alone does not guarantee a more equal accessibility geography, whereas feeder integration and coordinated land-use intervention improve the overall accessibility outcome and partially moderate inequality. The supplied 100-row validation file is explicitly labelled synthetic; its computational check gives an MAE of 4.05 min, MAPE of 11.39%, RMSE of 5.08 min and R² of 0.889, but these statistics are not presented as empirical field validation. The study therefore emphasises both the policy value and the evidential requirements of accessibility-based TOD appraisal.