Internet Use and Business-Start Occupational Preference in Nigeria: Linking Afrobarometer Survey Data to Geospatial Broadband Performance

This study brings national survey evidence together with an independent spatial measure of broadband performance to examine a specific occupational choice: whether Nigerians would rather start a business than work for an organisation. Afrobarometer Round 10 interviewed 1,600 adults between 19 June and 17 July 2024. We matched respondents by local government area (LGA) to Ookla mobile Speedtest tiles for the second quarter of 2024 and estimated household-weighted generalised estimating equations with standard errors clustered by LGA. Among the 1,544 respondents who selected one of the four occupational alternatives, 62.3% preferred to start a business. In the full survey model, movement to the next internet-use category was associated with lower odds of choosing business start-up (OR = 0.766, 95% CI [0.673, 0.872]). Estimates for the separate use categories point mainly to a difference between users and non-users rather than a regular dose-response pattern. The geospatial model covered 1,158 respondents in 47 LGAs. A one-standard-deviation increase in logged download performance produced an imprecise estimate (OR = 1.120, 95% CI [0.897, 1.399]). The corresponding interval from 1,999 stratified cluster-bootstrap replications was [0.864, 1.446], while leave-one-LGA-out estimates ranged from 1.048 to 1.169. Results for upload speed, latency and the cross-level interaction were similarly inconclusive. The findings show why reported internet use, measured local network performance, occupational preference and actual business entry should not be treated as interchangeable indicators.