Investigating a coordinated regional approach to malaria elimination using mathematical modelling

The movement of people across country borders has implications for malaria control and elimination. Namibia is a low transmission country in southern Africa that borders two high transmission countries, Angola and Zambia, yet the extent to which cross-border connectivity constrains progress toward elimination remains unclear. In this study, we aimed to explore the feasibility of pre-elimination in Namibia, accounting for local transmission dynamics, climatic variability, international connectivity and current intervention coverage levels. A compartmental mathematical metapopulation model of malaria transmission was used to estimate the change in cases relative to the present status quo. Our findings suggest that Namibia could achieve pre-elimination status by 2034 through robust cross-border management targeting 50% of migrants and travelers while simultaneously scaling up the effectiveness of vector control interventions across Angola, Namibia, and Zambia. Within a coordinated multi-country approach, managing cross-border travel without additional interventions reduces Namibia’s case burden by up to 33% over 10 years. In contrast, isolated national strategies were insufficient to offset importation pressure from neighbouring high-transmission settings. Cross-border management poses challenges but is necessary for elimination in low-transmission settings. Simulated insecticide resistance resulted in marginal increases in incidence rate in Angola and Zambia, indicating possible health system resilience to increasing insecticide resistance. Overall, this study provides a quantitative framework for regional malaria policy, shifting from isolated national efforts to a synchronised, multi-country approach to achieve elimination in low-transmission settings.