This is the first public release of outbreak-cba, a disease-agnostic cost-benefit framework for vaccine stockpile investment decisions.
The framework models vaccine stockpiles as operational assets — bought, stored, deployed, depleted, replenished, and sometimes expired — and estimates benefit-cost ratios across thousands of simulated outbreak futures.
This release includes:
Monte Carlo simulation engine for Type 1 (licensed vaccine) and Type 2 (novel vaccine / R&D pipeline) diseases
Eight disease configurations parameterised from peer-reviewed sources: mpox (Africa and England), cholera, Ebola, typhoid, meningitis A, yellow fever, and Lassa fever
Operational realism features: replenishment lead time pipeline queue and response deployment lag
Sensitivity analysis (±30% one-at-a-time tornado chart)
Excel and CSV output
Smoke-test validation harness (validate.py)
GitHub Actions CI workflow
To get started:
git clone
github.com
cd outbreak-cba
pip install -r requirements.txt
python run_analysis.py --config configs/example.yaml
This is a research prototype. It is intended for comparison and decision-support, not as the sole basis for vaccine procurement or outbreak response decisions.