Kinshasa and climate change: How population growth exacerbates urban vulnerability Demographic growth and climate vulnerability in a Central African megacity: A multiplier effect

Kinshasa’s climate vulnerability emerges not solely from climate change but from the convergence of sustained population growth (≈ 4 %/year), unplanned urbanisation, and the intensification of hydrological extremes. This article examines three amplification mechanisms: population concentration in areas of maximum hydrological risk; erosion of collective adaptive capacity; and—a plausible but quantitatively uncertain contributor—deforestation. Two hydrologically distinct events are rigorously distinguished: the torrential rains and landslides of 12–13 December 2022 in Mont-Ngafula and Ngaliema (≥ 169 official deaths; indicative range 220–305 with an underreporting factor of 1.3–1.8), and the exceptional Congo River flood of late December 2023–January 2024 (≈ 6.20 m, near the 1961 record of 6.26 m). Land governance is positioned as a structural mediator linked to an illustrative heuristic (the ”vulnerability scissors”) and three prospective pathways to 2050. A politically conditioned operational framework is proposed around four pillars at an indicative cost of US$ 4.5–8 bn over 20 years—a magnitude that, compared with Kinshasa’s annual budget (≈ US$ 200–400 m), reveals the centrality of concessional and climate finance. Without a transformation of the urban political economy in 2026–2035, Kinshasa and comparable humid-tropical megacities will face increasing humanitarian disasters.