Knowledge as a Peacebuilding Tool: Does Education Reduce Internal Conflict in Somalia? Evidence from an ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Abstract Internal conflict remains the defining development challenge of Somalia, where more than three decades of armed violence have eroded human capital, displaced millions, and entrenched cyclical fragility. While a growing international literature treats education as a peacebuilding instrument, this proposition has not previously been tested with time-series econometric methods for Somalia. This study examines whether education reduces internal conflict in Somalia in both the short run and the long run, while controlling for youth unemployment, real GDP per capita, and population growth. Using annual data for 1990–2024 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing framework, supported by Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests, diagnostic and stability tests, and pairwise Granger causality analysis, the study establishes a stable long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. The results reveal that education exerts a strong and statistically significant negative long-run effect on internal conflict: a 1% increase in the secondary school-age population is associated with an approximate 2.46% reduction in conflict intensity at the 1% significance level. Real GDP per capita also reduces conflict significantly, whereas population growth raises it. The error correction term is negative and highly significant, confirming a stable equilibrium relationship. The study recommends that secondary-school expansion be treated as a security investment rather than merely a social good, integrated with employment creation, inclusive economic growth, and demographic policy within Somalia's national peacebuilding and education agenda.