Land Use Change and Spatial Pattern Transformation in Kilimani Ward, Nairobi City County, Kenya: A GIS-based Analysis from 1985 to 2025

Rapid urban redevelopment is reshaping formerly low-density residential neighbourhoods in Nairobi into compact mixed-use urban spaces. This paper addresses the first objective of a wider Kilimani Ward study: to investigate how land use changes have influenced spatial patterns in Kilimani Ward, Nairobi City County, Kenya. Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing methodology was used with the aid of Landsat images from 1985, 1995, 2005, 2015 and 2025, complemented with Sentinel-2 images and historical images from Google Earth, road network layers, building footprints and field observations. Built-up and non-built-up land-cover classes were classified using supervised Random Forest classification, while the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index, Normalised Difference Built-up Index and Urban Index supported interpretation of vegetation decline and built-up expansion. A Kappa coefficient of 0.85 was obtained for the classification accuracy assessment. The results reveal that Kilimani is no longer a low-density residential neighbourhood but rather a high-density mixed-use urban node. The built-up area increased by approximately 25%, while green and open spaces declined by approximately 15%. The proportion of plots covered rose above the previous planning benchmark of 35% to reach levels close to that of redevelopment (90%) for intensified plots. Multi-storey apartments are now the dominant residential typology, representing about 53% of observed residential structures. Spatially, there is a tripartite layout with a commercial/mixed-use corridor along major roads, a high-density residential core and residual pockets of low density or institutional development. The findings demonstrate that Kilimani's principal planning challenge is not densification itself, but the cumulative effect of plot-by-plot redevelopment without sufficient spatial coordination. The study recommends GIS-enabled development-control monitoring, enforceable plot-coverage and permeable-surface standards, corridor-specific zoning, and protection of remaining open spaces.