Least-Cost Electrification Pathways for Universal Electricity Access in Rwanda: An OnSSET Modelling Analysis

Achieving universal electricity access by 2030 is a key objective of Rwanda's national development agenda. This study applies the Open-Source Spatial Electrification Tool (OnSSET) to evaluate least-cost electrification pathways under two scenarios: a Least-Cost Scenario and a Forced-Grid Scenario. Using 2024 geospatial, demographic, and electricity infrastructure data, the analysis estimates technology choices, investment requirements, generation capacity, and carbon emissions needed to achieve universal access. The results show that both scenarios can provide universal electricity access with approximately 2.28 million new connections, 309 MW of additional generation capacity, investments of about USD 1.59 billion, and very low carbon emissions. However, the Least-Cost Scenario is the preferred option, combining grid densification with stand-alone solar photovoltaic (PV) systems to achieve greater economic efficiency while minimizing reliance on mini-grids. The findings highlight the importance of integrating geospatial least-cost planning into national electrification strategies to support cost-effective investment decisions and Rwanda's transition toward a sustainable, low-carbon energy system.