LEVERAGING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR PREDICTIVE SECURITY AND COUNTER-INSURGENCY IN WEST AFRICA

West Africa is still under the burden of insecurity through the insurgent groups, porous borders and poorinstitutional capacity. Along with the quest by governments to find more adaptive responses, artificial intelligencehas become a possible force multiplier in counter-insurgency and predictive security. The paper discusses theapplication of AI-based systems like drone surveillance, predictive modeling, climate-security forecasting, anddigital intelligence to improve early warning, enhance coordination of intelligence, and operational decisionmaking. Based on the current studies of the activities of drones in the Sahel, institutional intelligence failures,machine learning algorithms of crime and attack prediction, AI-enhanced high-value targeting, and the utilizationof social and environmental information to predict, the article summarizes the evidence relating to the applicabilityof AI in regional security systems and their ethical consequences. These results indicate that even though AIprovides significant benefits in terms of situational awareness and anticipatory security, its application requiresinstitutional change, data management, and participative strategies including civil society and gender concepts.The paper has come to the conclusion that AI cannot be perceived as a technological shortcut, but as a means ofenhancing human capacity when integrated in responsible, collaborative, and contextually-aware security systems.