Linear and non‐linear effects of infrastructures on inclusive human development in Africa

Abstract The objectives of this paper are to verify the linear and the non‐linear effects of infrastructural development on inclusive human development in Africa. The results of the system generalized method of moments (system GMM) estimations show a positive effect of infrastructural development on inclusive development across all the infrastructural development indexes employed, except the information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructural composite index, which presents an insignificant negative effect. Besides, a non‐linear effect of infrastructures on inclusive development is established across all the infrastructure indicators except for the ICT indicator. Negative thresholds for complementary policies are established for the African Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI) and the transport index whereas positive thresholds are apparent for the electricity index and the water and sanitation infrastructure index (WSS). Accordingly, in order to sustain the positive incidence of the AIDI and transport index on human development, complementary policies should be engaged to avoid an overall negative effect on human development when the indexes are, respectively, 31.12 and 25.56. In the same vein, the electricity index and WSSI should exceed critical levels of, respectively, 49.79 and 41.92, to engender an overall positive effect on inclusive human development.