Material requirements for future low-carbon electricity projections in Africa

Deploying low-carbon electricity systems in developing countries is critical for meeting climate targets while increasing wellbeing. Direct emissions from operating electricity generation are well-understood, however, materials required to construct technologies and their emissions - embodied emissions-are frequently overlooked. This paper quantifies the material implications of proposed electricity systems in 47 African countries from 2015 to 2065, involving a reference scenario, and two Paris-Agreement scenarios (1.5 °C and 2.0 °C of warming). A purpose-built model, called Mat-dp (Material Demand Projections) is used for scenario assessment. Mat-dp integrates electricity generation projections with material requirements by technology, estimating material budgets, embodied emissions, and jobs. The resulting construction material mass grows 20-fold from 2015 to 2065, with the highest growth in the reference scenario. As low-carbon electricity capacity grows, embodied emissions from materials increase, reaching 47 MtCO2 in the 2.0 °C scenario by 2065. Three bulk materials, concrete, steel, and aluminium, make up 64–66% of the total materials required by 2065, and 59–61% of the total embodied emissions. The Paris Agreement scenarios show lower material demand, particularly bulk materials, but higher specialised material demand. Increasing low-carbon electricity generation while decarbonising industry offers a higher emission reduction potential compared to solely switching to low-carbon electricity. Estimated new jobs are 1.6 million per year, mostly from solar.