Measuring, Testing, and Understanding the Developmental Impact of Mini-Grids in the African Context

This paper investigates the operational performance of electric mini-grid projects in rural Africa, addressing a significant evidence gap in the measurement of their developmental impacts. Using a novel dataset that combines monthly night-time-light (NTL) observations from 2013 to 2024 with locality-level surveys conducted in 2024–2025, we analyse a quasi-exhaustive sample of 95 mini-grids in Madagascar. We focus on the probability that de-trended NTL—observed between the first three years of implementation and the pre-implementation period—is positive. Success rates, defined by this average probability, rarely exceed 50%, indicating substantial operational fragility. Key predictors of success include capital expenditure (CAPEX) subsidies, geographical accessibility, and elements of local governance, such as community-driven project initiation. Furthermore, we introduce an indicator of electricity power availability, which captures both operational status and installed capacity. Electricity power availability strongly predicts electricity market development—including the number of clients, amperage demand, and business uptake—as well as selected socio-economic outcomes, such as maternity service availability and perceived security improvements. Comparative partial results from Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal, where less exhaustive data were collected, support these general patterns.