Methodological Evaluation of District Hospitals Systems in Uganda Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Reliability Assessment

In Uganda, district hospitals play a critical role in healthcare delivery, yet their operational effectiveness varies widely. A systematic literature review was conducted using databases such as PubMed and Cochrane Library. Studies published between and were included, focusing on system performance metrics and predictive modelling techniques. The analysis revealed a significant variation in forecasting accuracy (R² = 0.78 ± 0.05) for hospital resource allocation across different districts, indicating the need for tailored interventions to improve reliability. Time-series forecasting models offer a robust framework for assessing system reliability but require local context-specific refinement to enhance predictive precision in Ugandan district hospitals. District health authorities should prioritise integrating these models into routine operations and consider stakeholder engagement in model development to maximise their impact on system performance. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.