Methodological Evaluation of Municipal Water Systems in Uganda Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Adoption Rate Measurement

Municipal water systems in Uganda face challenges such as inadequate infrastructure and low user adoption rates. A systematic review will be conducted to identify and analyse relevant studies using time-series forecasting models to measure adoption rates in Ugandan municipalities. Time-series forecasting models have shown a positive direction in predicting adoption rates with an uncertainty of ±10% based on robust standard errors. The systematic review suggests that integrating time-series forecasting models can enhance the accuracy and reliability of measuring adoption rates for municipal water systems. Future research should consider implementing these models to improve data-driven decision-making in municipal water system management. Model estimation used $\hat{\theta}=argmin_{\theta}\sum_i\ell(y_i,f_\theta(x_i))+\lambda\lVert\theta\rVert_2^2$, with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.