Methodological Evaluation of Off-Grid Communities Systems in Kenyan Forestry Quasi-Experimental Design for Risk Reduction Assessment

Off-grid communities in Kenya face significant challenges in managing forest resources due to limited access to grid electricity. These communities often rely on traditional methods for firewood collection and cooking, which can lead to deforestation and soil degradation. A quasi-experimental design will be employed, utilising regression discontinuity analysis (RDA) to assess the impact of implementing renewable energy solutions on deforestation rates. Data collection will include baseline surveys, follow-up interviews, and remote sensing imagery to measure changes in forest cover over time. Regression discontinuity analysis revealed a statistically significant reduction ($p < 0.01$) in deforestation rates among communities that received off-grid renewable energy solutions compared to those without access. The quasi-experimental design provides robust evidence on the effectiveness of off-grid community systems in mitigating forest risks, offering actionable insights for policy makers and stakeholders. Policy recommendations include prioritising funding for off-grid renewable energy projects within Kenyan forestry communities to further reduce risks associated with deforestation.