Multiple Scenarios-Based Impact Analysis of Predicted Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services Value

This chapter investigates how land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes under different scenarios will affect ecosystem services provisions in Nigeria using multiple data sources. The Markov and dynamics of land system models were integrated to predict future LULC changes while the value transfer methodology was adopted to evaluate the economic value of ecosystem services. The results revealed varying patterns and trends of LULC change under the baseline, forest protection priority, and sustainable economic growth scenarios. Based on the predicted LULC change, the total ecosystem services value in Nigeria will decline under the baseline and forest protection priority scenarios but increase in the sustainable economic growth scenario. The sustainable economic growth scenario showed major positive impacts on the ecosystem service functions of recreation, climate regulation, soil formation, and erosion control. This study concludes that the sustainable economic growth scenario is the best to ensure expected production while safeguarding the environment in Nigeria.