Open defecation in Kenya: A Box-Jenkins Arima Approach

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Kenya from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The authors apply the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the ODK series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Kenya is likely to decline, although slightly, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 9.9% to almost 8.2% of the total population. Hence, it is possible for Kenya to completely eliminate the practice of open defecation by 2030. The study basically suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Kenya.