Pathways for low carbon Nigeria in 2050 by using NECAL2050

Due to the adverse impacts of energy production and consumption on the climate, countries across the world are now charged with developing effective strategies that provide energy security and protect the climate. However, studies exploring pathways to reduce energy demand and GHG emissions in Nigeria are limited and have not really focused on what is technically feasible within the country. In this research, we use the Nigerian Energy Calculator 2050 to examine and compare the energy balances and GHG mitigation potentials for four alternative low carbon scenarios which are possible by 2050. Results show that the alternative low carbon pathways will reduce energy consumption, GHG emissions, and air pollution compared to the business-as-usual case. However, our analysis indicates that fossil fuels will still dominate the Nigerian energy system in all scenarios by 2050. Thus, efforts that successfully decouple economic development from GHG emissions are still needed to keep Nigeria on the path of low carbon transition. Our findings further suggest that bioenergy and energy efficiency will play significant roles towards decarbonizing Nigeria. Policy implications for low carbon transition based on our analysis are also discussed. This paper may serve as a reference for developing energy and climate policies in Nigeria.