Predictive Ecosystem Health Assessment Under Land‐Use and Vegetation Dynamics in a Semi‐Arid Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Land degradation driven by rapid land‐use and climate‐driven vegetation dynamics increasingly threatens ecosystem stability in semi‐arid wetland basins, yet predictive ecosystem health assessments remain limited in Sub‐Saharan Africa. This study evaluates historical dynamics and future trajectories of ecosystem health in the Ziway‐Shalla Sub‐Basin of Ethiopia's endorheic Rift Valley using an integrated Vigor‐Organization‐Resilience‐Services (VORS) framework. Multi‐temporal remote sensing data were used to analyse land‐use and vegetation dynamics from 1995 to 2025, while CA‐Markov land‐use simulations and random forest‐based NDVI forecasting were used to project ecosystem conditions to 2045. Ecosystem health indicators were combined into a composite ecosystem health index (EHI), and spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to identify clustering patterns and hotspots of degradation. Results show a significant decline in ecosystem health across the basin, with mean EHI decreasing from 0.48 in 1995 to 0.37 by 2045 (≈23% reduction). Declines were primarily associated with landscape fragmentation and loss of ecosystem organization and resilience, despite localized increases in NDVI‐based vegetation vigor linked to agricultural expansion. Spatial analysis revealed strong clustering of ecosystem health conditions, with relatively healthy ecosystems concentrated around lakes and riparian environments, while degraded clusters increasingly dominate upland agricultural landscapes. If current land‐use trajectories persist, nearly 80% of the basin is projected to fall within ordinary to weak ecosystem health classes by 2045. These findings highlight the growing vulnerability of endorheic wetland basins to fragmentation‐driven degradation and demonstrate the value of predictive, spatially explicit ecosystem health assessments for identifying priority areas for sustainable land and water resources management.