Predictors of Rental Housing Affordability in Abuja, Nigeria: A Multivariate Analysis Using Secondary Data

Rental housing affordability remains one of the most pressing urban challenges in sub-Saharan African cities, yet empirical investigations that explicitly model its predictors in Nigeria's Federal Capital Territory remain scarce. Drawing on secondary data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the World Bank Nigeria Economic Update, the Federal Mortgage Bank of Nigeria (FMBN), UN-Habitat reports, Abuja Metropolitan Management Council (AMMC) records, and peer-reviewed literature covering 2010–2023, this paper constructs a synthesised panel dataset and deploys multiple regression analysis alongside exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to identify the key determinants of rental housing unaffordability in Abuja. The dependent variable is the Rental Affordability Index (RAI)—defined as the ratio of median monthly rent to median monthly household income—measured across six area councils. Five predictor domains are investigated: macroeconomic conditions (inflation, GDP per capita, unemployment), housing supply constraints (planning approval backlogs, mortgage penetration rate, formal housing stock growth), demographic pressure (population growth rate, rural-to-urban migration intensity, household size), infrastructure and locational amenities (distance to the Central Business District, road network density, utility access index), and governance factors (land administration efficiency index, building permit processing time). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression results indicate that population growth rate (β = 0.41, p < .001), inflation rate (β = 0.38, p < .001), and building permit processing time (β = 0.29, p < .01) are the strongest positive predictors of rental unaffordability. Factor analysis extracts three latent constructs—'Macroeconomic Pressure', 'Supply Governance Deficit', and 'Demographic Stress'—that together account for 68.4% of total variance in affordability outcomes. The paper concludes with evidence-based policy recommendations targeting mass social housing delivery, streamlined land administration, and rent regulation frameworks aligned with Nigeria's National Housing Policy. Findings contribute to the growing body of knowledge on housing affordability in Global South megacities and have direct implications for the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal 11.