Prevision of biomass, yield and water productivity for soft and durum wheat in Setif region using Aquacrop under SSPscenarios

Algeria’s food security in the upcoming years is threatened by the anticipated climate change, so thestudy aims to employing the AquaCrop crop model under SSP1.9, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5 of the experimental site situated in the Eastern High Plains of AlgeriaSetifto examine the ef-fects of climate change on the rainfed durum and softwheat cultivar known asOuedel bard andElWifek sucssively. The model also has been calibrated using meteorological, pedological, phenologicalparamètres, and yield, biomass, canopy cover and soil water content data observed over a period spanning three cycles, from 2021–2022 to 2023–2024. The model has been cali-brated, validated, and parametrized for the prediction of wheat grain yields and was then used to simulate, biomasse, waterproductivity and yield wheat at the study site for short-term (2020–2039) and medium-term (2040–2059) periods in comparison to a reference period (1995–2014). AquaCrop was confirmed to replicate the yields of the Oued ellberd and ElWifek cultivars with a high degree of accuracy (RMSE = 0.34 et RMSE = 0.60). For both cultivars of durum and soft wheat, it is anticipated that the average wheat grain yield will increase by+136.67%; +161.33 % and 176.67%; +28.38%, +62..16%, +89.19 % under SSP1.9, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5, respectively in 2020–2039 and by 153.33%; +269.17%, +369.76%; +41.89% , +75.68%and +109.46% in 2040-2059 under SSP1.9, SSP4.5, and SSP8.5, succsively compared to the ave-rage yield of the baseline period (1995–2014),which was estimated to be 6 t/ha and 7.4t/hafor durum and soft wheatsuccsively. The increase in CO2 concentrations fertilizes the production of rainfed wheat. This effect offsets the adverse effects of rising temperatures and falling pre-cipitation.Under three SSPs scenarios, an increase in wheat water productivity and biomass is anticipated. Overall, the simulation results demonstrated that the AquaCrop model is suitable for simulating the effects of climatic stress on the productivity of cultures in the zones pluvial agriculture, which could benefit in making decisions on water productivity and cultural adap-tation to future climatic trends in semi-arid conditions.Keywords: Aquacrop, SSPs, durum wheat, soft wheat,yield crop