Ready to graduate? Insights from Tanzania’s cash transfer program

This thesis explores significant dimensions of ultra-poverty graduation through cash transfer program. Drawing upon both qualitative and quantitative methodologies, the thesis provides a comprehensive assessment of graduation models, beneficiary trust levels, the efficacy of behavioral nudges and group investment dynamics, crucial elements for sustainable graduation outcomes for Tanzania’s Productive Social Safety Net (PSSN) program. The thesis is organized around three main empirical papers. The first paper sets the foundation by reviewing global graduation models, particularly the acclaimed BRAC ultra-poor graduation framework. Using comparative analysis, it identifies critical success factors such as comprehensive graduation package and intensive coaching, as well as pitfalls including inadequate contextual adaptation and insufficient market linkages. Stakeholder interviews and surveys involving implementers, policymakers and beneficiaries reveal varied perceptions regarding the concept of graduation, sustainability of program impacts and the efficacy of existing interventions. Results indicate a strong preference for context-specific graduation strategies that emphasize continuous capacity building and financial education. Therefore, program designs must be carefully tailored to local socio-economic contexts and incorporate robust market analysis to ensure sustainable outcomes and genuine beneficiary self-reliance. The second paper quantitatively measures trust levels among beneficiaries participating in Community Savings and Investment Promotion (COMSIP) groups. Trust emerges as a foundational component influencing successful financial collaboration and effectiveness of savings groups, critical for sustainable poverty alleviation outcomes. Using trust experiments and structured surveys, the research identifies significant variations in trust levels influenced by factors such as exposure to location, expectations and behavioral nudges exposure. While behavioral nudges produced mixed effects, expectations-based framings demonstrated relatively stronger associations with trust behaviour. Higher trust levels correlate with improved group financial outcomes, including enhanced savings rates and greater investment in productive assets. These findings suggest that livelihoods enhancement and financial inclusion programs can substantially improve their outcomes by strengthening trust and cooperation among beneficiaries. Finally, the third paper examines group-level trust, reciprocity and investment choices using group investment games, surveys and qualitative case studies. The findings reveal that collective investment decisions are shaped not only by individual preferences but also by group deliberation, peer influence, leadership dynamics and shared lived experiences. Group settings generally promoted stronger reciprocity and willingness to contribute to collective investments compared to individual decision-making settings. The paper also identifies key characteristics of successful groups, including balanced group composition, effective governance structures, trust, external support and shared economic motivation.