Replication Package for: Ecological Stress, Resource Scarcity, and Macroeconomic Resilience: A Dynamic Micro-founded Analysis of MENA Economies

This repository contains the complete replication package for the paper "Ecological Stress, Resource Scarcity, and Macroeconomic Resilience: A Dynamic Micro-founded Analysis of MENA Economies," submitted to Environmental and Resource Economics. The paper develops a dynamic microfounded framework in which ecological stress affects economic performance through interconnected productivity, resource-scarcity, price, and capital-allocation channels. The empirical analysis examines Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia over 1980–2023 using a multidimensional MENA Climate Risk Index (MCRI) and country-specific identification strategies—structural VAR, cointegration, and Markov-switching methods. Contents This package includes: Processed dataset: Full_Panel_Data.csv — country-year panel data for Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia (1980–2023) Python code: 11 scripts for data preprocessing, unit root tests, cointegration tests, linearity tests, VAR estimation (Tunisia), MS-AR estimation (Egypt), Monte Carlo simulation, robustness checks, and figure generation Figures: All main text figures (Figures 1–6) and Online Supplementary Material figures (SM-1 to SM-7) in both PNG (300/600 DPI) and PDF formats Online Supplementary Material: Complete PDF with model derivations, robustness checks, and additional results Replication Instructions Install Python 3.8+ and required packages: pip install -r requirements.txt Run data preprocessing: python code/data_preprocessing.py Run estimation scripts (in any order): unit_root_tests.py, cointegration_tests.py, linearity_tests.py, tunisia_var.py, egypt_ms_ar.py, monte_carlo.py, robustness_checks.py Generate figures: python code/main_figures.py and python code/sm_figures.py Generate tables: python code/tables.py Full documentation is provided in the README.md file. Requirements Python 3.8 or higher Packages: numpy, pandas, matplotlib, scipy, statsmodels, openpyxl, scikit-learn See requirements.txt for specific versions License This package is licensed under the MIT License. Keywords (For Zenodo Metadata) ecological stress, resource scarcity, macroeconomic resilience, MENA, structural VAR, Markov-switching, fiscal capacity, foreign direct investment, climate risk, water scarcity, cointegration, regime-dependent amplification