Resilience Pathways in the Flood-Prone Hadejia River Using a Relative Importance Index Approach for Targeted Mitigation Strategies

Floods are among the most devastating consequences of global warming and can cause unprecedented disruptions in the operations of contemporary communities. Despite global efforts to increase flood resilience, the local pathways driving increasing flood risk in the Hadejia River remain poorly quantified, hindering the development of effective, targeted mitigation strategies. This study addresses this critical knowledge gap by identifying and prioritizing the key physical and socioeconomic drivers of flood risk in the Hadejia River, Jigawa State, Nigeria. The study employed a field reconnaissance survey, which utilized a structured questionnaire as the primary instrument, to collect baseline data from a sample of 400 households across flood-prone communities between August 2023 and January 2024. The collected data were analysed via the relative importance index (RII) technique to objectively rank the significance of the identified flood drivers. The results indicate that riverbed siltation (RII=0.87) is the most significant factor influencing flood risk, followed closely by steep side channels (RII=0.86) and prolonged periods of rainfall (RII=0.86). Other critical contributors include a high number of tributaries discharging into the main river (RII=0.84), urbanization (RII=0.82), and the presence of Typha grass and water weeds (RII=0.82). However, the analysis confirmed that socioeconomic factors, such as land use changes, river diversion, and urban expansion, significantly influence the flood vulnerability of the basin. These findings provide a clear, evidence-based prioritization of flood pathways, highlighting the urgent need for targeted interventions, specifically desilting and channel management, to increase flood resilience, improve infrastructure, and support community adaptation strategies in the Hadejia River Basin.