Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve in Somalia through Per Capita CO₂ Emissions, Renewable Energy Transition and Foreign Direct Investment, 1990–2022

Abstract Climate change and rising carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions present major challenges to sustainable development, particularly in fragile and low-income countries where economic reconstruction and environmental protection must be pursued simultaneously. This study examines the relationships among renewable energy transition, economic growth, urbanization, foreign direct investment, and CO₂ emissions in Somalia while testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Annual data covering the period 1990–2022 were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach to estimate the long- and short-run effects of GDP per capita, a mean-centered quadratic income term, renewable energy consumption, urban population growth, and foreign direct investment (FDI) on per capita CO₂ emissions. The findings do not support the long-run validity of the EKC hypothesis, as neither the linear nor the quadratic income term was statistically significant, a result further confirmed by joint significance testing. Renewable energy consumption emerged as the strongest emissions-reducing factor in both the short and long run, while the negative long-run relationship between FDI and CO₂ emissions is consistent with the pollution halo hypothesis. Urban population growth exerted a positive short-run effect with a one-year lag, whereas economic growth exhibited short-run nonlinear dynamics that did not persist in the long run. The study provides updated and more comprehensive evidence on the environmental–growth nexus in Somalia and highlights the importance of accelerating renewable energy deployment, promoting environmentally responsible foreign investment, and integrating low-carbon strategies into national development planning to support sustainable economic recovery.