(A, B, C) Simulated early detection probability is plotted (A) against the number of ES-covered patches, (B) against the percentage of the population in ES-covered patches, and (C) the national ES population coverage. Black lines represent simulation results for each of pc and the number of ES-covered patches. The coloured data points in (A-C) represent simulations where the simulated national ES population coverage aligned with the observed national ES population coverage in South Africa (11.3%), under pc of 25% (blue), 50% (orange) and 100% (green). The national ES population coverage is given by the product of pc and the percentage of the population in ES-coverage patches. It is noted that the maximum number of ES-covered patches is 1502 and the x-axis for (A) is limited to a maximum value of 160.