Spatial Analysis of Temperature Variation Trend of Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Abuja

Climate variability and change are among the most serious global concerns in the 21st century. Variation in temperature, in particular, has garnered significant interest due to its direct and indirect effects on ecosystems, agriculture, water resources, and human health. This article examines the spatial and temporal trends in temperature variation in FCT, Abuja, over a 35-year period. Data compiled from NiMET of daily temperature records were used from 1990 to 2025. Short time intervals were observed for 1990-2000, 2001-2010, 2011-2020, and 2021-2025, and a long-term interval for 1990-2025, spanning 35 years of average temperatures. The findings reveal a statistically significant upward trend in annual mean temperatures over the study period, with the 2021–2025 interval recording some of the highest values in the dataset, including January temperatures exceeding 35–36 °C. The multiple regression model demonstrated an exceptionally strong fit (R² = 0.9987), with all four seasonal predictors significant at p < 0.0001. The Wet Season (JJA) exerted the strongest marginal influence on annual mean temperature (β = 0.285), while all seasons contributed meaningfully. Notable warm peaks coinciding with El Niño events were identified in 1999, 2004, 2014, and 2024–2025. These findings underscore the urgency of multi season climate monitoring, adaptive planning, and evidence-based policy formulation for the FCT and Nigeria at large.