Spatial Distribution and Socio-Economic Effects of Poverty Alleviation Programmes in Ondo State, Nigeria

Poverty alleviation programmes are central to Nigeria's development strategy, yet rigorous state-level evidence on their spatial distribution and socio-economic impacts remains limited. This study addresses that gap by conducting an integrated geospatial and householdlevel assessment of poverty interventions in Ondo State, Nigeria. Survey data obtained from 624 respondents were analysed using GIS-based spatial analysis, descriptive statistics, mean score analysis, Relative Importance Index (RII), Pearson correlation, and Spearman's rankorder correlation. Results reveal pronounced spatial inequality, with interventions disproportionately concentrated in urban and semi-urban centres, while rural communities recorded comparatively fewer interventions. Among programme categories, infrastructure development recorded the highest perceived effectiveness (RII = 0.580), followed by basic health care (RII = 0.542) and SDG-aligned initiatives (RII = 0.534). At the household level, programme reach remained shallow, as nearly half (47.3%) of surveyed households reported only one beneficiary, while fewer than 3% reported three or more. Correlation analysis showed that beneficiary count increased significantly with age (r = 0.176, p < 0.01) and number of dependents (r = 0.117, p < 0.01), but showed no association with income or daily expenditure. Perceived programme effectiveness also correlated negatively with reported community-level benefits (Spearman's ρ = −0.163 to −0.312), suggesting a disconnect between individual programme ratings and wider community welfare gains. The findings indicate that poverty alleviation interventions in Ondo State remain spatially uneven and insufficiently aligned with areas of greatest need. Improved spatial targeting and more equitable programme allocation are therefore necessary to enhance welfare outcomes and reduce regional disparities