Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Cocoa Production in Nigeria under Climate Variability

This study examines cocoa production in Nigeria from 2015 (the year Nigeria exited a long period of economic recession)up to early 2023, employing spatiotemporal dynamics analysis.Nigeria has experienced worsening climate impacts, such as increased temperatures, inconsistent rainfall patterns, flooding, and extended droughts. These changes have negatively impacted agricultural productivity, especially of crops that are sensitive to climate, but also economically important cash crops such as cocoa. An analytical approachthat combined statistical trend analysis, spatial autocorrelation, and climate– production mapping to assess changes in the distribution of cocoa cultivation over time across major producing states was employed.The results show a steady temperature rise of 0.10–0.15°C per year in all regions, which is always above the optimum temperature for cocoa growing. There is a considerable spatial variation in rainfall patterns, with the southwestern region seeing lower rainfall, while Cross River state was receiving higher rainfall. This led to a "climate change paradox," in which drought stress in the southwest reduced production and excess rainfall in the south increased the incidence of fungal diseases, which negatively impacted production. The simulation analysis further shows that production is still clustered in space, with Ondo State still dominating production throughout the study period. In general, the results reveal that climate change is clearly affecting the geographic distribution and productivity of cocoa in Nigeria. The study thus recommends that region-specific and climate- adaptive strategies be implemented to enhance resilience, boost productivity, and inform agriculture and climate policy decisions.