Stability in Food Security within the Southern African Customs Union: A Dynamic Panel Analysis Approach pn Cereals

Food insecurity is no different in southern Africa. This paper attempts to assess the country effects within the aggregated cereal food security status within the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The impact of a big player on dependent small players is analysed by using the panel data approach to empirically explain the dynamics of climate patterns on cereal food production. The paper employed econometric dynamic models to determine effects of urbansisation, production yield, land availability and weather variables on both country individual and regional food security. Results indicates that a unit decrease in available crop surface per capita in each time period leads to 40% decrease in the ability to be food secure within the SACU region. It implies that countries with less crop surface, low crop yield and high population growth tend to be less food secure because of applying less rigorous food production technologies. Therefore, adjustments in cereal food production in Southern Africa are necessary to follow principles of climate smart agriculture. Resulting shifts in production systems will open an opportunity for regional cooperation in food resource management. Iindividual country policy on food security shows divergence and could be adjusted towards a more holistic regional approach with innovation, trade, health, wealth and geopolitical relations. Individual country support from a regional customs union will strengthen regional equity and sustainable development for ultimate welfare. Technological change in cereal food production practices will be based on resource quality and management skills.