Strengthening Critical Mineral Supply Chain Resilience through Multi-Scale Geospatial Monitoring

Critical materials such as lithium, copper, and rare earth elements are essential for the global energy transition. However, the supply chains that connect mines, transport corridors, and export infrastructure are increasingly exposed to environmental hazards, infrastructure disruptions, and governance challenges. Many existing risk assessments conducted by governments, industry, and international organisations focus primarily on geopolitical and market risks. In contrast, spatially explicit risks—such as exposure of mining sites and transport corridors to environmental hazards, infrastructure constraints, and local social conditions—remain less systematically assessed. Integrating these spatial risks is crucial to inform policies aimed at improving supply security and the sustainability of the sector. This briefing presents a novel multi-scale geospatial monitoring framework for assessing critical mineral supply chain resilience and proposes its integration into existing risk assessment approaches. The framework combines satellite monitoring of mining activity, spatial environmental, social, and governance (ESG) indicators, transport network modelling, and the use of internal displacement data to identify areas exposed to disruption risks. These components are implemented within the Critical Mineral Dashboard, an interactive WebGIS platform designed for decision-makers, infrastructure planners, and supply chain analysts. The dashboard enables users to identify high-risk locations along mineral supply chains and to validate potential disruptions using high-resolution satellite imagery. This workflow links risk identification with targeted validation, supporting more informed and evidence-based decision-making. Case studies in Zambia and Malawi demonstrate the practical value of the approach. In Zambia, satellite-derived mine expansion is closely associated with copper production trends, enabling near-real-time monitoring of mining activity. In Malawi, transport network analysis identifies alternative road corridors that can maintain export flows when primary infrastructure is disrupted. Spatial ESG indicators highlight mining sites with elevated environmental and social exposure, while displacement data, measured as numbers of internally displaced people (IDPs) associated with past disasters and conflict, are used to identify transport segments that are repeatedly exposed to disruption. These findings demonstrate how the framework can support both mineral-producing countries (e.g. infrastructure planning and governance) and downstream users of critical materials (e.g. supply chain risk assessment and diversification). The results also reflect a broader pattern of accelerating mineral development across southern Africa. For instance, this includes rapid lithium expansion in Zimbabwe, increasing copper production ambitions in Zambia, and emerging rare earth opportunities in Malawi. The analytical approach is based largely on open geospatial datasets and replicable methods, making it readily applicable to other regions. By enabling spatially explicit risk identification and validation, the framework provides a practical tool for strengthening the resilience, transparency, and sustainability of critical mineral supply chains.