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<sup><strong>Evaluating Machine Learning and Econometric Models for Inflation Forecasting: Evidence from a Sub-Saharan African Panel</strong></sup>

Domain:

socioeconomic

Record type:

paper
Creator:
GabBaf
Publisher:
fig
Host:avatar
This study constructs a reproducible, annual panel of macroeconomic indicators for eight Sub-Saharan African economies (1972–2024, N = 424) to compare eight forecasting approaches: a naive random-walk benchmark, two linear econometric models (pooled OLS and country fixed effects), three machine learning models (Elastic Net, Random Forest, and XGBoost), and a recurrent neural network (LSTM) evaluated with and without early stopping. Using a chronological train/validation/test split and pairwise Diebold-Mariano tests, we evaluate out-of-sample predictive accuracy.

Visit

doi.org

Tags

Financial economicsMacroeconomics (incl. monetary and fiscal theory)Modelling and simulationPlanning and decision makingArtificial intelligence not elsewhere classified

Licenses

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internationalhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode

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