Sustainability framework for water infrastructure development in Nigeria: a modelling approach

ABSTRACT This study introduces the Predictive Iterative Sustainability Model (PISM), a tailored framework designed to enhance water infrastructure sustainability evaluations in Nigeria. PISM addresses the lack of localised, adaptable frameworks by integrating three key components: a Viability Rating (VR), a Sustainability Rating (SR), and a conceptual formula within a predictive iterative process. This integrated approach optimises project evaluation and planning. Empirical data were derived by evaluating responses to a survey with 70 Likert-scale questions covering 265 sustainability challenges. This data was used to assess community viability for sustainable water infrastructure in five Nigerian communities facing significant water poverty. The results reveal VR scores ranging from 63.95 to 67.91%, establishing a benchmark for viability. SR scores, on the other hand, vary substantially from 179 to 424%, illustrating the model's capacity to evaluate sustainability under diverse conditions and identify critical, high-impact projects that can mitigate infrastructure failure risks. As a dynamic and adaptable framework, PISM holds significant potential to improve water infrastructure sustainability in Nigeria and similar regions globally.