Systemic assessment of climate risks and adaptation options for transport networks in East Africa

Transportation networks are lifeline systems fundamental to economic and social prosperity. Disruptions to these networks can be detrimental to long-term growth plans. This is particularly important in the context of growing climate hazards such as flooding, where long-term sustainable development, social wellbeing and economic stability are at risk from widespread failures of transport networks. In view of these threats, there is a need to create evidence of the impacts of current and future climatic risks to transport networks. To address this problem, the authors have developed and implemented a multi-regional transport infrastructure climate risk and adaptation assessment framework. This framework seeks to understand the extent and location of extreme hazard exposures, direct damage and economic flow losses, risks and adaption investment needs for strategic transport networks. It aims to inform decision-makers to help: (i) improve network resilience by identifying and strengthening the locations of highest vulnerabilities; and (ii) under- stand the benefits of investing in climate resilience in terms of avoided losses from climate risks. The authors apply their climate risk and adaptation assessment tool for the case study region covering Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia, where they investigate the risks due to river and coastal flooding over current and future climate change driven scenarios. Their analysis shows that there are large benefits to investing in climate adaptation of major roads and rail network links in those countries that are exposed to flooding in the present and future. They estimate that investing in climate adaptation from the present (2019) until 2080 to strengthen resilience of the 20 most flood risk incurring roads and railways lines in the region would amount to about US dollars 9 million and US dollars 92 million in adaption investments, but would avoid risks as high as US dollars 875 million and US dollars 234 million across future climate scenarios.