Systemic challenges underlying the crisis in Ethiopia’s grade 12 examinations: a PLS-SEM analysis

Purpose In Ethiopia, students’ performance in Grade 12 national exams has been consistently low, raising questions about the effectiveness of secondary education. Previous research has focused on specific factors affecting examination performance, with little consideration given to how the interaction of these factors influences student performance. In this study, the relationships between teacher competence, curriculum examination alignment, psychological stress, language barriers, school leadership capacity and outcomes of Grade 12 examinations are examined, guided by general systems theory. Design/methodology/approach This study adopted a quantitative cross-sectional survey design where the data were obtained from 455 Grade 12 students in five university-based examination centers in Ethiopia. The direct, mediating and moderating relationships among the study constructs were analyzed using SPSS and partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). Findings The findings suggest that teacher competence is positively associated with curriculum examination alignment and psychological stress. Language barriers are exacerbated by curriculum misalignment and psychological stress, and negatively impact examination results. The moderating effect of school leadership capacity on the relationship between language barriers and examination outcomes was not statistically significant, whereas it was statistically significant in educational processes. According to recent data, only 10% of students were successful in exams between 2022 and 2025. The results indicate that low examination performance should be considered a symptom of systemic issues that are interconnected rather than a reflection of individual student shortcomings. Research limitations/implications However, the authors must consider some weaknesses associated with this study. To begin with, the data were collected during national examinations, when most pupils were under immense pressure and stress. It is possible that this environment affected the respondents’ views, especially regarding psychological and structural aspects, Second, the research design used in the paper is that of a cross-section. This kind of design makes it impossible to identify the causation among the various variables. While PLS-SEM enables the identification of relationships between different constructs, a longitudinal approach would be more helpful in this regard. Practical implications This study’s findings can be very useful for enhancing the quality of the educational process in the context of high-stakes testing. Given the significant contribution of teacher skill levels and the alignment between the curriculum and exam syllabus. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by bringing together several educational, psychological and institutional factors in one systems approach. It focuses on the conditions of education rather than explanations at the student level, and thus can provide evidence for designing a holistic educational reform that would improve the quality of students’ learning and examination results in Ethiopia and other developing country.